Rating with CNBC, Jeff Currie, the strategic director at the Carlyle Group Private Investment Group (American) and Co-president of the Financial Technology Company and Lower Exchange of Abaxx Markets, said the Asian oil market was very close to "the minimum operation", that is, the production was barely sufficient to operate normally.

"I suppose Asia has reached the threshold. Europe is about a month away and America is about to face this issue in July," he said.

The expert added that Europe was feeling fine because of receiving oil from the US's strategic Reserve (SPR), but could not last. According to Kpler's data, the recent SPR shipments were mainly directed to Western Europe, Mediterranean and Balkan.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) states that the global oil supply continues to reduce an additional 1.8 million barrels per day in April, down to 95.1 million barrels per day, raising the total decline from February to 12.8 million barrels per day. The observation depot was reduced 129 million barrels in March and added 117 million barrels in April.

Jeff Currie notes that global oil storage data may be misleading, since much of it is currently required to maintain the safety activities of pipelines and storage systems, the rest of which may be ready to flow on a small market.

  • The public passenger driver Jeepney lined up to pick up fuel subsidies in Manila, Philippines on 15 April. Image;Reuters*

The Philippines is targeting American oil, Canada, Colombia and Argentina. According to Kpler, a shipment of 616,000 barrels of crude oil from SPR is heading for the country. This is America's first emergency reserve oil shipment to Asia since November 2022.

Depending on 90% of the oil supply through the Hormuz Channel, Pakistan plans to ask oil refineries to store enough crude oil for 15 days and distribution companies to maintain sufficient product production production for 30 days. The government is also planning to build strategic reserves.

IEA forecasts the global refinery capacity decline of 4.5 million barrels per day in quarter II, down to 78,7 million barrels. The agency warns that the market may be severely lacking during the summer's high consumption period, especially if exports from the unrecovered Middle East and the stock reserves continue to decline.

"We can walk into 'Red Zone' in July or August if we don't see any improvement in the situation", Director IEA Fatih Birol, remarked last week.

According to expert, reopening the Hormuz Channel remains the only permanent solution. Compared to before the war, the oil production from the Gulf countries dropped 14.4 million barrels per day. The assumption that the energy flow through the Channel gradually recovered from June, this year's global supply reached an average of 102.2 million barrels per day, dropping 3.9 million barrels per day compared to last year, according to IEA.