The opening session of the Congressional Meeting on 5/3, the Chinese Prime Minister of Li Qiang announced the goal of economic growth [htp-5%] (htpts ://nvexpress.net/center-quoc-ha-mic-tie-tang-truong-truong-truong-50690.html, reduced by this year's goal of 2025 and lowest since 1991. The inflation target maintains around 2%. The unemployment rate in the city was expected to remain at 5.5% - more than last year was 5.2%.
On * Xushua*, Shen Danyang, head of the government service report, said that the goal was active and practical, reflecting a comprehensive evaluation of domestic conditions and external environmental changes.
"The external environment for Chinese economic development this year is more complex and dynamic. The unstable and unpredictable elements could be out of hand", Shen remarked. In addition, this speed is still within the highest speed group of large global economies, which fit the long-term goals of China.
The same point of view analysis, given that the decision to lower the growth goal is a practical approach, which helps maintain the ability to develop more stimulation if political tensions such as conflicts in the Middle East escalated.
Get out! [A container dock in the Free Trade Zone of Hell, Instruments 22/2/2019. Image: Reuters](htttms
- A container dock in the Free Trade Zone of Hell, Instruments 22/2/2019. Image: Reuters*
Last year, China acquired a record of $1,200 billion commercial surplus. But also by export dependency, the interruption at the Hormuz Strait could cause energy prices, logistics to rise, is the barrier to growth.
According to Ho Woei Chen, UOB's economic expert (Singapore), the focus that Beijing is targeting is "stabilizing the economy" rather than high growth. Consequently, the state authorities have been comfortable with the slow down of overall growth. "These are very realistic goals," he remarked.
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Samuel Siew, head of the Synergy Financial Advisers (Singapore), said not surprisingly because China is often cautious in economic forecasts. "This goal may also count the U.S. tariffs, expected to continue as an obstacle to growth," he added.
In the face of the challenge of exports, the decision to lower the growth goal while also helping Beijing expand its surplus to stimulate other dynamics and reform the economic structure. Prime Minister Li Qiang on 5/3, recalled the importance of promoting domestic consumption, attending the cost of 250 billion people (36 billion dollars) of buying bridges.
According to Hier Lee Lim, the Asian macroeconomic and macroeconomicist of Convera (Singapore), the administration’s focus on promoting domestic needs and consumer psychology is important, especially when the family's weak beliefs are still hindering the recovery.
Andy Ji, Asian Forex analyst and interest rate at ITC Markets in Shanghai, points out Beijing is trying to push growth transition from investment, real estate to consumption. The use of super-long bonds to fund "new-to-new" programs not only promote shopping demand but also force the technology upgrade industry.
In addition to building the domestic market, the Chinese government's service report points out the task of driving new growth dynamics at a faster rate, increasing the pace of self-control and the power of science - greater technology.
Zhang Ying, Vice Principal of Guanghua Management School (Academic University) said the signal sent to the international community is very clear, that the country no longer pursues simple growth rates. "This year's goals reflect China's strong commitment to high quality development," he said.
In order to deploy, the manager will make the financial policy more active and apply the liquid currency policy. Liu Chenjie, chief economic expert Upright Asset Management forecasting China Central Bank will adjust interest rates and mandatory reserves in quarter II.
"The reduction goal of economic growth to create space for high quality growth in areas such as high-level technology and production", Liu rated. According to plan 5 years 15th, spending for China's research and development expected to increase over 7% per year.
Team goal but China's annual growth prospects still challenge, according to some of the gia. Mr. Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor of the Allianz Insurance Group said that four and a half "may still be a great ambition unless Beijing promotes strong economic reform in the country".
Marco Sun, the financial market analyst of the MUFG Bank in Shanghai, argues that the so far signals indicate that the position which operates the world's second largest economy remains similar to 2025. According to this, the potential currency policy remains supportive, with the focus of the field of "new economic" such as artificial intelligence (AI) and related disciplines, through lower financial costs and goal-based credit support, rather than extensive stimulation.
UOB's Ho Woei Chen expert argues that the main growth momentum of this year is still production - export, which is opposite the global variable. "The use is falling behind and restrained by the estate sector. So pushing this field in short term would not be easy," he said.
The same view, Sheana Yue, the senior economist at Oxford Economics, suggested that by the end of this decade, spending was significantly stronger. "The main growth incentives in 2026 and 2027 may continue to be investment in production and external demand", she predicted.
Angelo An(**the Reuters, Aedua, Bloomberg)
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