What teams need for World Cup 2026 knock-out?
Many teams 100% safe on paper. Others must score more for Round of 32.
World Cup 2026 half done. 54 of 104 matches finished. Groups A, B, C closed. 16 of 48 teams go home. 32 teams fight in knock-outs.
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Top two from 12 groups enter Round of 32. Eight best third-place teams take rest.
If teams tie points, head-to-head first. Next: goal difference, goals scored, fair play points (yellow, red cards), FIFA ranking June 2026.
South Africa forward Thapelo Maseko (12) celebrates opener minute 63 with teammates, South Korea vs South Africa, Group A final match, Monterrey, Mexico, June 24, 2026. Photo: AP
Group A: Co-host Mexico first to reach knock-outs. Top group with three wins. Fifth host in history to win all group games, after Uruguay 1930, Italy 1990, France 1998, Germany 2006. Mexico plays third-place team from Group C, E, F, H, or I in Round of 32 on June 30.
South Africa beat South Korea 1-0 final match. Take second place. First time in World Cup knock-outs. Play co-host Canada, also first-time knock-out qualifier. Means Round of 16 has at least one history-maker.
South Korea forward Son Heung-min (7) battles Khuliso Mudau (20), South Korea lose 0-1 to South Africa, Group A final match, Monterrey, Mexico, June 24, 2026. Photo: AP
South Korea third with 3 points. Must wait for other groups. With 3 points, -1 goal difference, Son Heung-min and team still have high chance, 88% per Opta model. If advance, play Germany or Group G winner.
Czech Republic bottom, out with 1 point after 0-3 loss to Mexico.
Group B: Switzerland top with 7 points after 2-1 win over Canada. Play third-place team from Group E, F, G, I, or J in Round of 32, Vancouver, July 2.
Canada second on goal difference over Bosnia & Herzegovina, both 4 points. Co-host plays South Africa, Los Angeles.
Promise David (center) celebrates goal with Nathan Saliba (left) and Jonathan David, Canada lose 1-2 to Switzerland, Group B final match, BC Place, Vancouver, June 24. Photo: AP
Bosnia & Herzegovina beat Qatar 3-1, finish with 4 points. Enough to be first third-place team to advance. Edin Dzeko and team play Germany or USA in Round of 32.
Asian Cup champions Qatar out, bottom with 1 point.
Group C finished. Brazil top with 7 points, beat Scotland 3-0. Five-time champions play Group F runner-up, Houston, June 29.
Morocco also 7 points, second on goal difference after 4-2 win over Haiti. Play Group F winner (Netherlands, Japan, or Sweden), Monterrey.
Matheus Cunha scores third goal, Brazil beat Scotland 3-0, Group C, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida, June 24. Photo: AP
Scotland third, 3 points, -3 goal difference. Opta says Scotland 42% chance to advance. Haiti out, three losses.
Group D final matches tomorrow morning June 26, Hanoi time. USA secure top spot. Play third-place team from Group B, E, F, I, or J.
Australia, Paraguay both 3 points before head-to-head. Australia better goal difference, need only draw for second. Paraguay must win for direct spot.
Abdulkerim Bardakci (14) contests ball with Julio Enciso (19) in World Cup 2026 Group D match between Turkey and Paraguay in Santa Clara, California, near San Francisco, June 19. Photo: AP
If draw, Paraguay get four points, likely qualify as third-place team. Loser must wait for other groups' results to see if three points enough. According to Opta, Australia and Paraguay have 93% and 88% chance to reach round of 16.
Turkey eliminated after losing to both Australia and Paraguay.
In Group E, Germany secured top spot, will face third-place team from Group A, B, C, D, or F.
Ivory Coast need only draw against Curacao to keep second place, facing Group L runner-up (England, Ghana, or Croatia) in round of 16.
Kai Havertz (left) falls after tackle by Emmanuel Agbadou in Germany vs Ivory Coast match, World Cup 2026 Group E second round in Toronto, June 20. Photo: AP
Ecuador must beat Germany and hope Ivory Coast loses to Curacao to reach second. If they win and finish third with four points, they likely still advance.
Curacao finish second if they beat Ivory Coast and Ecuador fail to beat Germany. If both Ecuador and Curacao win, Ivory Coast drop to bottom. Ecuador likely finish second on goal difference, Curacao compete for third-place spot.
According to Opta, advancement chance: Ivory Coast 93%, Ecuador 23%, Curacao 18%.
In Group F, Netherlands and Japan both have 4 points. Not mathematically through, but Opta predicts 100% chance to reach round of 16. Issue: both must fight for top spot. Runner-up faces Brazil in round of 16.
Keito Nakamura (left) and Yan Valery watch ball in Japan vs Tunisia match, World Cup 2026 Group F second round in Guadalupe, near Monterrey, Mexico, June 20. Photo: AP
Japan need one point against Sweden to qualify directly. If they lose and finish with 4 points, high chance they still advance as third-place team.
If Netherlands and Japan both win, top spot decided by goal difference. Both currently +4, but Netherlands scored one more goal. If both lose, goal difference decides second and third. If still tied, FIFA considers fair play points, then FIFA ranking.
Group F winner faces Morocco, runner-up faces Brazil on June 29.
Sweden qualify directly only if they beat Japan. Can even top group if Netherlands lose to Tunisia.
Draw also helps Sweden advance in third place. If they lose to Japan, must wait for other groups. Opta rates Sweden's advancement chance at 91%.
Tunisia eliminated after losses to Sweden and Japan.
In Group G, Egypt lead group, reach knockout stage if they avoid defeat against Iran in final match on June 27.
Egypt forward Trezeguet (7) celebrates goal with Mohamed Salah (10) in 3-1 win over New Zealand at BC Place in Vancouver, Canada, June 21, 2026. Photo: AP
Even if they lose, Egypt advance if Belgium fail to beat New Zealand. Worst case: finish third with 4 points, almost certainly enough for round of 16. Egypt advancement chance rated 100%. Group winner faces third-place team from Group A, H, I, or J.
Iran qualify directly if they beat Egypt. If draw, can only finish second if Belgium also draw with New Zealand.
Belgium finish top two if they beat New Zealand. Also secure second if they draw and Egypt beat Iran.
If Belgium and Iran both win, they tie for top spot. If both draw, they compete for second. Since Belgium and Iran drew, ranking decided by goal difference. Both currently 0. If still tied, FIFA considers fair play points (Iran -2, Belgium -7), then FIFA ranking, where Belgium hold advantage.
New Zealand must beat Belgium and hope Iran fail to beat Egypt to reach top two. Oceania team cannot top group. If New Zealand and Iran both win, New Zealand finish third with four points—likely enough to advance.
Advancement chance: Belgium 92%, Iran 57%, New Zealand 8%.
In Group H, Spain secure top-two spot if they avoid defeat against Uruguay on June 27.
Even if they lose, Spain stay top two if Cape Verde fail to beat Saudi Arabia. If third with four points, Spain still have nearly 100% chance to advance.
Lamine Yamal celebrate after score opener in Group H World Cup 2026 match between Spain and Saudi Arabia in Atlanta, Sunday June 21, 2026. Photo: AP
Draw almost guarantee Spain keep top spot, unless Cape Verde win and erase four-goal difference. Group H winner face Group J runner-up.
Uruguay reach knockout stage if beat Spain. If draw, they reach top two only if Cape Verde also draw.
Cape Verde get direct spot if beat Saudi Arabia. They advance if draw and Spain beat Uruguay.
If Uruguay and Cape Verde both win, they fight for top spot. If both draw, they fight for second. Since head-to-head draw, goal difference decide rank (currently both 0). If still tied, FIFA check fair play points (Cape Verde -3, Uruguay -2), then FIFA ranking (Uruguay higher). Runner-up face Argentina.
Saudi Arabia must beat Cape Verde and Spain must not lose to Uruguay for Saudi Arabia to get second. If finish third with four points, they still have big chance to advance.
Cape Verde have 67% chance to advance, Uruguay 38%, Saudi Arabia 33%.
In Group I, France and Norway advance, meet June 26 for top spot. Norway have worse goal difference (+4 vs France +5), so must win to top group. Group winner face third-place team, runner-up face Group E runner-up.
Michael Olise dribble past Habib Diarra in France 3-1 win over Senegal, Group I World Cup 2026, East Rutherford, New Jersey, June 16. Photo: AP
Senegal (goal difference -3) and Iraq (-6) have zero points. Winner of head-to-head match must hope three points enough to rank among best third-place teams. Senegal have better goal difference, so 71% chance to advance. Iraq only 1%.
Group J almost settled. Argentina secure top spot, face Group H runner-up in round of 16.
Striker Nadhir Benbouali (12) head equalizer for Algeria from corner in 2-1 win over Jordan, Group J World Cup 2026, Santa Clara, California (USA), June 22. Photo: AP
Austria and Algeria have three points before head-to-head June 28. Austria need only draw to keep second due to better goal difference. Algeria must win for direct spot. If draw and finish third with four points, Algeria still can advance. Group end last, so they know situation before match finish. Runner-up face Group H winner.
Jordan eliminated. Austria have 97% chance to advance, Algeria 81%.
In Group K, Colombia secure top-two spot, top group if avoid defeat against Portugal June 28. Group winner face third-place team.
Portugal must win to top group, draw enough for second. Even if they lose and DR Congo beat Uzbekistan, Roberto Martinez team have six-goal difference advantage, likely keep second. Cristiano Ronaldo and teammates have 100% chance to advance.
Midfielder Luis Diaz (left) battle center back Abdukodir Khusanov in Colombia 3-1 win over Uzbekistan, Group K World Cup 2026 opener, Estadio Azteca, Mexico, June 17, 2026. Photo: AP
DR Congo only reach second if beat Uzbekistan by enough goals to erase goal difference gap. But win and four points almost guarantee advance as third-place team. DR Congo have 41% chance to reach round of 16.
Uzbekistan must win but can only finish third. With -7 goal difference, chance to advance with three points very low, only 2%.
In Group L, England lead Ghana on goal difference. Final round, England face Panama, Ghana face Croatia. Thomas Tuchel team need equal or better result than Ghana to top group and face third-place team in round of 16. If both matches draw, England top group.
Luka Modric disappointed as Croatia lose 2-4 to England, Group L World Cup 2026, Arlington, Texas, June 17. Photo: AP
If England and Ghana both win, goal difference decide top spot. England currently +2, Ghana +1, England also score three more goals. If tied, FIFA check fair play points (England -1, Ghana -2), then FIFA ranking.
Ghana secure top-two finish if beat or draw Croatia. African team top group if get better result than England, or win by enough goals to overtake goal difference. If they lose, Ghana drop to third, but four points likely enough to advance.
Croatia must beat Ghana for direct spot. If Croatia win and England drop points against Panama, Croatia top group. Draw almost guarantees Croatia advance as third-place team. Heavy defeat seriously hurt their chances.
Panama has been eliminated after two losses. England's chance of advancing is 100%, Ghana 100%, and Croatia 95%.
How are the third-placed teams selected?
The eight best third-placed teams will qualify for the Round of 32. The tie-breaking criteria are, in order: points, goal difference, goals scored, disciplinary points, and finally, FIFA ranking.
The Round of 32 matchups for World Cup 2026 depend on the specific combination of the eight advancing third-placed teams. For example, if the third-placed teams that advance are from Groups B, F, G, H, I, J, K, and L, then the US (first in Group D) will face Bosnia & Herzegovina (third in Group B).
Initially, there are 495 different scenarios for the knockout stage. This number will gradually decrease as the groups conclude.
World Cup 2026 standings
Third-placed teams Played +/- Points [1
Mexico](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/mexico-16)
3
6
**9**[2
South Africa](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/nam-phi-1531)
3
-1
**4**[3
South Korea](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/han-quoc-17)
3
-1
**3**[4
Czech Republic](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/ch-czech-770)
3
-4
**1**[1
Switzerland](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/thuy-si-15)
3
4
**7**[2
Canada](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/canada-5529)
3
5
**4**[3
Bosnia & Herz.](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/bosnia-herz-1113)
3
-1
**4**[4
Qatar](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/qatar-1569)
3
-8
**1**[1
Brazil](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/brazil-6)
3
6
**7**[2
Morocco](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/morocco-31)
3
3
**7**[3
Scotland](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/scotland-1108)
3
-3
**3**[4
Haiti](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/haiti-2386)
3
-6
**0**[1
USA](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/my-2384)
2
5
**6**[2
Australia](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/australia-20)
2
0
**3**[3
Paraguay](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/paraguay-2380)
2
-2
**3**[4
Turkey](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/tho-nhi-ky-777)
2
-3
**0**[1
Germany](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/duc-25)
2
7
**6**[2
Ivory Coast](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/bo-bien-nga-1501)
2
0
**3**[3
Ecuador](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/ecuador-2382)
2
-1
**1**[4
Curaçao](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/curacao-5530)
2
-6
**1**[1
Netherlands](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/ha-lan-1118)
2
4
**4**[2
Japan](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/nhat-ban-12)
2
4
**4**[3
Sweden](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/thuy-dien-5)
2
0
**3**[4
Tunisia](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/tunisia-28) 2 -8 0[1
Egypt](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/ai-cap-32)
2
2
**4**[2
Iran](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/iran-22)
2
0
**2**[3
Belgium](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/bi-1)
2
0
**2**[4
New Zealand](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/new-zealand-4673)
2
-2
**1**[1
Spain](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/tay-ban-nha-9)
2
4
**4**[2
Uruguay](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/uruguay-7)
2
0
**2**[3
Cape Verde](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/cape-verde-1533)
2
0
**2**[4
Saudi Arabia](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/saudi-arabia-23)
2
-4
**1**[1
France](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/phap-2)
2
5
**6**[2
Norway](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/na-uy-1090)
2
4
**6**[3
Senegal](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/senegal-13)
2
-3
**0**[4
Iraq](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/iraq-1567)
2
-6
**0**[1
Argentina](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/argentina-26)
2
5
**6**[2
Austria](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/ao-775)
2
0
**3**[3
Algeria](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/algeria-1532)
2
-2
**3**[4
Jordan](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/jordan-1548)
2
-3
**0**[1
Colombia](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/colombia-8)
2
3
**6**[2
Portugal](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/bo-dao-nha-27)
2
5
**4**[3
DR Congo](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/chdc-congo-1508)
2
-1
**1**[4
Uzbekistan](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/uzbekistan-1568)
2
-7
**0**[1
England](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/anh-10)
2
2
**4**[2
Ghana](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/ghana-1504)
2
1
**4**[3
Croatia](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/croatia-3)
2
-1
**3**[4
Panama](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/panama-11)
2
-2
**0**[1
Bosnia & Herz.](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/bosnia-herz-1113)
3
-1
**4**[2
Sweden](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/thuy-dien-5)
2
0
**3**[3
Croatia](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/croatia-3)
2
-1
**3**[4
South Korea](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/han-quoc-17) 3 -1 3[5
Algeria](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/algeria-1532)
2
-2
**3**[6
Paraguay](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/paraguay-2380)
2
-2
**3**[7
Scotland](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/scotland-1108)
3
-3
**3**[8
Cape Verde](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/cape-verde-1533)
2
0
**2**[9
Belgium](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/bi-1)
2
0
**2**[10
DR Congo](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/chdc-congo-1508)
2
-1
**1**[11
Ecuador](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/ecuador-2382)
2
-1
**1**[12
Senegal](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/senegal-13)
2
-3
**0**
Champion Best player Top scorer
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