What To Expect From the Jobs Report on Friday

By

Diccon Hyatt

Full Bio Diccon Hyatt is an experienced financial and economics reporter. He's written hundreds of articles breaking down complex financial topics in plain language, emphasizing the impact that economic currents would have on individuals' finances and the market. He has a Bachelor's degree in English from the University of Delaware.

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Published May 07, 2026

07:00 AM EDT

Job creation in line with forecasts could signal the job market is staying resilient in the face of several shocks. Michael Nagle / Bloomberg / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• U.S. employers likely added 55,000 jobs in April, a deceleration from the unusually high 178,000 created in March, according to forecasts.
• The April report could shed light on whether the job market is truly breaking free from the tariff-related slump that predominated in 2025.
• Tax cuts and the Federal Reserve's rate cuts last year are encouraging job growth, while soaring gasoline prices could drag it down in the coming months.

Get personalized, AI-powered answers built on 27+ years of trusted expertise.

The nonfarm payrolls report will show whether March's burst of job creation was the beginning of a turnaround for the labor market, or just another hill in the roller coaster of economic data that has consistently surprised experts of late.

The report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, due early Friday, is likely to show U.S. employers added 55,000 jobs in April, down from the unexpectedly high 178,000 jobs created in March, according to a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswiresand The Wall Street Journal.1 The unemployment rate is expected to stay at 4.3%, relatively low by historic standards.

Since last May, the economy has alternately added and lost jobs every month while just about breaking even in the wash, and surprising forecasters with each sudden reversal. Friday's report could shed light on whether the job market is truly bouncing back after a dismal 2025, when tariffs, the crackdown on immigration and uncertainty about trade policy combined to drag job creation to its lowest level outside of a recession in decades.

“After reassuring job gains in March, Friday’s report will be critical for determining whether those results were an anomaly or the beginning of a stronger trend for the labor market," Michael Linden, senior policy fellow at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, a progressive think tank, wrote in a commentary.

What This Means For The Economy

Job creation in line with forecasts could signal the job market is staying resilient in the face of several shocks, the latest being soaring gasoline prices as a result of the Iran war.

Recent data has provided a few hints that March's upturn was no fluke. Unemployment claims hit their lowest level since 1969 last month, and hiring and quitting both accelerated in March, suggesting that the recent "no hire, no fire" trend could be easing up.

On the other hand, if the economy is getting over the tariff impact, a fresh shockwave is on the way from the Iran war. The conflict's disruption of oil supplies has driven up gas prices steeply, raising concerns that consumers could pull back on spending to afford fuel, ultimately causing a ripple effect that hurts the job market. Some forecasters expect unemployment to rise as soon as this summer.

"We are seeing a strange economy that is getting stranger because of the war," Dean Baker, senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research think tank, wrote in a commentary. "The labor market weakening we saw through 2025 seems to have stopped and may have even reversed somewhat."

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Baker is among the forecasters who expect healthcare to once again dominate job creation, noting that the sector has accounted for 146% of job growth over the last year. (That's not a typo, it means that the new healthcare jobs made up for losses in other industries.)

Other forces in the economy are providing a boost to spending and encouraging hiring, possibly overshadowing the drag from tariffs and the war. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts last year reduced borrowing costs, and easier money may only now be boosting the job market, as was intended. Fed officials often note monetary policy operates with "long and variable lags." And many households got a financial boost at tax time because of the One Big Beautiful Bill tax cuts.

"The economy entered the year riding tailwinds from tax cuts, higher public spending, and the Fed’s interest rate cuts in late 2025," Bill Adams, chief economist at Fifth Third Commercial Bank, wrote in a commentary. "These tailwinds have contributed to stronger hiring in the last few months."

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• What factors contribute to the labor market's low-hiring, low-firing limbo?
• How does an immigration crackdown affect U.S. job creation?
• What was the intended economic impact of the tax cuts?

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1. Marketwatch. "U.S. Economic Calendar."

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