Since the Middle East conflict broke out at the end of February, the Hormuz Channel - the maritime line carrying 20% of global gas supply was almost paralyzed. But the situation has recently changed signs.
On June 10, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that more than 100 million barrels of crude oil of the Gulf countries had been exported, thanks to a "secret mission" which supported more than 200 ships passing through the Rift of Hormberg. "This success achieved because the US is controlling the Hormuz Channel rather than Iran", he stated.
Analysts also admitted that more and more oil from the Gulf region had passed the Channel to reach the world market. According to the company tracking the Kpler goods market, approximately 96 million barrels of crude oil not of Iran have been exported since early May, via the Rift Hormberg or alternative routes at Oman Bay.
Get out! [A boat passes by the anchored tanker on the Hormuz Channel off the coast of Qeshm Island, Iran, April 18.] Photos:(htttttpii1-kmand.vnecdn.net/2026/06/134/AP264242443959-6097-181341366.jpg?w=120&h=0&qq=100&dpr=1&fit=c&s=NNNNN6bdvdYQ1UUUHAFAFANLLLIVIA)
- A boat passing by the anchored tanker on the Hormuz Channel off the island of Qeshm, Iran, April 18. Image: AP*
Mrs. Amena Bakr, the Kprier analyst, said that if you count the shipments that are in the process of unloading, the figure can exceed 100 million barrels, meaning "the equivalent of Mr Trump's statement".
Reopening the Hormuz Channel and restoring the oil flow was the top priority of President Trump, even though at some point he was confused in the treatment. At first, he said the Rift Hormuz "not the American problem" and his allies should "take care of their own oil supply".
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But then he threatened to take all measures. By recent weeks, belief in the protection of the U.S. Army and the need for emergency supplies has caused freight companies to take risks to pass through the Rift of Hormuz.
According to experts, it is more likely that ships have turned off the navigation system and followed the course on the move. At the same time, the Gulf countries made the move of oil from one ship to the other, under the support of the U.S. military, according to TankerTrackers.
Richard Meade, chief marine data editor Lloyd's List Intelligence, said that the US Army is conducting a "conservative surveillance operation", using self-portrait vehicles, aircraft and airlifting drone teams to support ships passing through the southern region of the Rift Hormber, near Oman coast. According to him, the AH-64 Apache attack helicopter of the U.S. Army fell off the coast of Oman this week "more than likely to be joining that very campaign".
** Although over 100 million barrels of oil have successfully crossed the Hormuz Channel, traffic production is still much lower than the level of 15 million barrels that have passed this route daily. This means the supply is not enough to ease the global energy market.
The price of oil currently maintains under the $100 threshold per barrel, partly thanks to Trump's claims on the possibility of achieving a peace agreement, as well as many countries using oil reserves and reducing energy consumption.
While supporting the Gulf Oilboats, the US continues to prevent Iran's oil from leaving the Hormuz Channel.[permanent export][permanent dead link] (2005) (2005) (2005) (2005) (2005) (2005) (2005) (2005) (2005) (2005).
Iran is also said to be reducing mining. Wood Mackenzie Energy Research Company estimates that this oil production has declined by about 35,000 barrels per day, since the US began to impose lockdown. In the meantime, land oil reserves have been estimated to reach 69 million barrels, the highest since 2020.
According to Ahmad Araman, Wood Mackenzie's expert, the production pressure declines, limited exports, and depletion capacity may push Tehran to seek a diplomatic solution. "For Iran, a temporary diplomatic breakthrough can also help relieve immediate pressure," he remarked.
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