Hormuz Channel strains are at risk of Asian economic threats

The U.S. large-scale air raid, Israel the same counter-attack from Iran last weekend did[httt][httts] (httts ://nvvnvnvnvnvnvnvnvnvnvnvnvnvn).net/van-to-toan-can-doan-hagan-hang-haang-taram-tam-tai-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-bien-hor-hor-hor-hor/201060141414.1.hmgmmlml) html html html html html eo eo, where traffics transports near 20% of global oil supply.

The Channel was not officially sealed but about 150 ships anchored, stopping moving around the area, after at least three ships were attacked. Typically, each day there are about 15 million barrels of crude oil and over 4 million barrels of ingredients (small, diesel, flying fuel) that pass through the area.

The price of oil on two-thirds had a time of rising over 10%, up to over 82 dollars a barrel - a higher than a year, before going back around 79 dollars. By noon 3/3, the price again crossed 80 dollars. Expertly, if the oil flow is interrupted through the Hormuz Channel is only a few days long, the global market will absorb the shock itself due to its abundant supply and large consumption countries opening up the reserves.

The long - term conflict, however, caused the Channel to be longer closed, with a clear impact. The recent analysis of JP Morgan notes that the current world economy is still dependent on Middle Eastern petroleum, though the weight has decreased over the years.

Get out! [The Sea of Hormum and surrounding nations] Graph: NASA](htttttttshtt i1-kmddn.vnecdn.net/2026/03/hormber-322-1772646585.jpg?w=1000&h=0&qqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqq====================nnnnnnnnnnnn=====nnnnqq=============)=============================================================================================&&&&&&&&&&&============

Mind the Hormuz Channel and surrounding nations. Graphics:

JP Morgan assesses, oil prices touch only $100 a barrel if the supply misses 4 million barrels per day - something that has never happened before. Therefore, U.S. bank experts have noted the scenario of rising prices up to this "highly unlikely possibility".

Coordination, Mr. Heng Konon How - Head of the UOB Bank strategy (Singapore), said that "the expected price to go up to $100 is too soon".

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The cause is an important "Red line" that remains, when Iran has not launched a direct attack on oil carriers and the Gulf Department of Energy. In addition, OPEC is still incoherent due to previous production cuts from 2023.

According to How, there is a sign that Iran maintains a certain level of restraint due to a greater concern of isolation in the context of regional conflict. In case of necessity, the countries of the Gulf and US can deploy armed escort forces for tankers to reduce the risk of crossing the Hormuz Channel.

The more likely scenario is the price of Brent oil trading around an 80-dollar barrel in the quarter II and III, as predicted by the UOB Bank (Singapore).

Meanwhile, JP Morgan noted, at this price rate, even if the supply is not interrupted, high risk costs may persist due to political pressure, insurance costs, and increased logistics.

Get out! [Movie turns the price of Brent's oil (subscription/size) from 26/2 to 3/3. Source: OilPrice](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAACH5BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACAACAACAACATATATATAAAEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

Mobile turns the price of Brent oil (subscription/gave) from 26/2 to 3/3. Source: OilPrice

The largest U.S. bank forecasts the situation in which Brent oil prices remain around 80 dollars to June with extended risk costs, some Asian countries at significant risk.

According to Bank IING (PDF Lan), the area is heavily dependent on the crude oil flow from the Middle East. Japan, for example, the Philippines is close to 90% dependent, while China and India import it in turn by about 38% and 46% of the demand.

"Any interruption in the Hormuz Channel will restrict supply, potentially causing shortage, slows down business activity and pressure on production across Asia", Mrs. Deepali Bhargava, head of the Asian - Pacific research department of the states.

Even when supply is not lacking, the price of oil increases the trade balance and increases inflation pressure. If the price of oil increased by 10%, it would have reduced the balance of the past 40-60 points. If the rise lasts, the deficit levels get deeper. Thailand, Korea, Vietnam and the Philippines are the most vulnerable countries, according to ING.

In addition to the cost of rising oil prices, exports of some Asian economies can also be affected. Over the past few years, many countries have taken the initiative to diversify their outputs for exports, reducing their dependence on the American market, and the Middle East emerging as the destination to replace prospects. Thus, unrest in this area is at risk of slowing down the growth that has just begun.

In addition, energy occupys relatively large proportions in the basket of consumer prices (CPI) in developing Asian countries. In theory, rising oil prices can boost general inflation, especially when fuel costs go up often pulls rising food prices.

Food is 25-45% of the cargo of CPI in developing countries. That's why economies like India and the Philippines can take a huge impact, where the price of oil is 10 percent more can cause inflation to increase 0.4 points. In contrast, Australia benefits from them as large oil exporters.

Deepali Bhargava predicts inflation in Asia will rise but is basically still in the control goal of most central banks. "But, if the oil shock lasts, combined with the loss rate of currency, inflation will be pushed high. This caused great pressure, forcing the currency executives to continue to keep the interest point rather than cutting further", she remarked.

With the global economy, the chain of supply breaks due to the closure of the Hormuz Channel may cause GDP to decrease by 0.6 percent in the first half of the year compared to the base drama. And inflation increases more than 1 percent.

"This is a moderately moderate macro shock, unlikely to threaten the expansion of the economy or significantly alter the global currency policy course", JP Morgan remarked. Even so, the Middle East conflict can still interrupt the momentum that improves the ongoing global business belief.

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#[citation of conflict in the Middle East with global economics][citation needed][citation needed][citation needed]

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