What scenarios for South Korea to enter World Cup knockout round?
Chances of advancing for South Korea drop to 33% in theory, after 9 of 12 groups at World Cup 2026 end.
0-1 defeat to South Africa leaves South Korea with 3 points and -1 goal difference, ranking third in Group A. According to statistics before second matchday, teams with such record had over 95% chance of advancing. Two days ago, Opta also asserted Hong Myung-bo's team had 87% chance to reach next round.
However, analytical systems overlooked one factor: final group stage matches did not take place simultaneously. Teams playing later had advantage of calculating results needed to secure spot to advance.
Son Heung-min (center) and teammates look disappointed after South Korea's 0-1 loss to South Africa in final match of Group A at 2026 World Cup, at Monterrey stadium in Mexico, June 24, 2026. Photo: Reuters
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This led to series of teams playing safe to secure points instead of seeking win. June 26 and 27 saw total of four draws. As result, Paraguay and Sweden secured spots in top 8 best third-placed teams, while Iran also has bright chance of advancing at 84.4%.
Results from Groups A to I pushed South Korea down to eighth place among third-placed teams. Currently, Hong Myung-bo's team's record is better than Scotland's and Uruguay's, but worse than Iran's. South Korea needs two of three third-placed teams in Groups J, K, and L to fail to achieve goals in final matchday. Iran, with 3 points and 0 goal difference, will be in top 8 best third-placed teams if one of three conditions favorable to South Korea below occurs.
Opta estimates South Korea still has 33% chance of advancing, but in reality, this figure is much lower due to calculations of teams playing last. In Group J, both Austria and Algeria risk finishing third overall. Problem for South Korea is that these two teams face each other on morning of June 28. They both have three points after two matches, and draw allows both to advance together.
Should match produce winner, South Korea's chances of advancing improve if Algeria loses, as African representative has -2 goal difference. In other scenario, South Korea needs Austria to lose by at least two goals.
In Group L, Croatia is currently third with exact same points and goal difference as South Korea. What Hong Myung-bo's team needs is for 2018 World Cup runners-up to lose to Ghana, team still hoping to top group. However, Croatia - Ghana match could easily end in draw, allowing both teams to advance. In that case, Ghana finishes second with 5 points, while Croatia has 4 points.
In Group K, DR Congo and Uzbekistan face each other in final matchday and must win to keep hopes of advancing alive. South Korea benefits if match ends in draw, or if Uzbekistan wins by margin of less than six goals.
2026 World Cup Standings
Third-placed teams MP GD Pts [1
Mexico](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/mexico-16)
3
6
**9**[2
South Africa](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/nam-phi-1531)
3
-1
**4**[3
South Korea](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/han-quoc-17)
3
-1
**3**[4
Czech Republic](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/ch-czech-770)
3
-4
**1**[1
Switzerland](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/thuy-si-15)
3
4
**7**[2
Canada](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/canada-5529)
3
5
**4**[3
Bosnia & Herz.](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/bosnia-herz-1113)
3
-1
**4**[4
Qatar](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/qatar-1569)
3
-8
**1**[1
Brazil](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/brazil-6)
3
6
**7**[2
Morocco](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/morocco-31)
3
3
**7**[3
Scotland](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/scotland-1108)
3
-3
**3**[4
Haiti](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/haiti-2386)
3
-6
**0**[1
USA](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/my-2384)
3
4
**6**[2
Australia](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/australia-20)
3
0
**4**[3
Paraguay](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/paraguay-2380)
3
-2
**4**[4
Turkey](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/tho-nhi-ky-777)
3
-2
**3**[1
Germany](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/duc-25)
3
6
**6**[2
Ivory Coast](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/bo-bien-nga-1501)
3
2
**6**[3
Ecuador](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/ecuador-2382)
3
0
**4**[4
Curaçao](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/curacao-5530)
3
-8
**1**[1
Netherlands](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/ha-lan-1118)
3
6
**7**[2
Japan](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/nhat-ban-12)
3
4
**5**[3
Sweden](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/thuy-dien-5)
3
0
**4**[4
Tunisia](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/tunisia-28)
3
-10
**0**[1
Belgium](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/bi-1)
3
4
**5**[2
Egypt](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/ai-cap-32)
3
2
**5**[3
Iran](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/iran-22)
3
0
**3**[4
New Zealand](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/new-zealand-4673)
3
-6
**1**[1
Spain](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/tay-ban-nha-9)
3
5
**7**[2
Cape Verde](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/cape-verde-1533)
3
0
**3**[3
Uruguay](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/uruguay-7)
3
-1
**2**[4
Saudi Arabia](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/saudi-arabia-23)
3
-4
**2**[1
France](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/phap-2)
3
8
**9**[2
Norway](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/na-uy-1090)
3
1
**6**[3
Senegal](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/senegal-13)
3
2
**3**[4
Iraq](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/iraq-1567)
3
-11
**0**[1
Argentina](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/argentina-26)
2
5
**6**[2
Austria](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/ao-775)
2
0
**3**[3
Algeria](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/algeria-1532) 2 -2 3[4
Jordan](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/jordan-1548)
2
-3
**0**[1
Colombia](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/colombia-8)
2
3
**6**[2
Portugal](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/bo-dao-nha-27)
2
5
**4**[3
DR Congo](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/chdc-congo-1508)
2
-1
**1**[4
Uzbekistan](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/uzbekistan-1568)
2
-7
**0**[1
England](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/anh-10)
2
2
**4**[2
Ghana](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/ghana-1504)
2
1
**4**[3
Croatia](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/croatia-3)
2
-1
**3**[4
Panama](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/panama-11)
2
-2
**0**[1
Sweden](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/thuy-dien-5)
3
0
**4**[2
Ecuador](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/ecuador-2382)
3
0
**4**[3
Bosnia & Herz.](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/bosnia-herz-1113)
3
-1
**4**[4
Paraguay](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/paraguay-2380)
3
-2
**4**[5
Senegal](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/senegal-13)
3
2
**3**[6
Iran](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/iran-22)
3
0
**3**[7
Croatia](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/croatia-3)
2
-1
**3**[8
South Korea](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/han-quoc-17)
3
-1
**3**[9
Algeria](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/algeria-1532)
2
-2
**3**[10
Scotland](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/scotland-1108)
3
-3
**3**[11
Uruguay](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/uruguay-7)
3
-1
**2**[12
DR Congo](https://vnexpress.net/the-thao/world-cup-2026/doi-tuyen/chdc-congo-1508)
2
-1
**1**
Champion Best player Top scorer
Prediction time remaining: 18 days
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