Spike In Gas Prices Drove Retail Spending Surge In March
Key Takeaways
- Retail sales have increased the most in more than three years, driven by a surge in receipts at gas stations.
- The 15.5% monthly jump in gas station sales is not adjusted for inflation and reflects soaring prices due to the Iran war.
- Outside of gas, sales rose a healthy 0.6% over the month, indicating consumers still have spending money after shelling out at the pump.
March was a record-smashing month to be a retailer—if you own a gas station.
Retail sales jumped 1.7% in March from February, the largest increase since January 2023, the Census Bureau said Tuesday.1 The figure beat forecasters' expectations for a 1.5% jump, according to a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.2 The increase was driven by a 15.5% month-over-month increase in sales at gas stations, the biggest monthly increase in data going back to at least 1992.3
The Census data tracks the amount of money that changes hands and is not adjusted for inflation, so the surge in sales tracks with the record increase in gasoline prices in March, resulting from the Iran War's disruption of oil supplies from the Middle East. The sales figures underscored the immediate and significant impact the Iran war has had on consumer spending and the economy, causing households and businesses to divert more of their spending toward fuel.
What This Means For The Economy
The report suggests that consumer spending, the main engine of U.S. economic growth, is resilient despite higher gas prices diverting money from other spending categories.
Despite the energy price shock, consumers did have money left over to spend elsewhere. Sales outside of gas stations rose 0.6%, and rose in all categories except for clothing stores, which had flat sales, and miscellaneous stores, which fell 0.9%. Restaurant sales rose a lackluster 0.1% in a possible sign that people are cutting back on eating out to afford the pricier gasoline, Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, wrote in a commentary.
Related Education
[Retail Sales: Definition, Measurement, and Use As an Economic Indicator
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[What Determines Gas Prices?
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The report also held signs of one of last year's major economic upheavals, the tariffs President Donald Trump levied on most U.S. trading partners, as sales jumped 0.9% at appliance and electronics stores.
"The impact of tariffs is visible in the high spending on electronics and appliances due to higher prices," Long wrote.
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- Census Bureau. "Advance Monthly Sales For Retail and Food Services, March 2026."
- MarketWach. "U.S. Economic Calendar."
- Census Bureau via Federal Reserve Economic Data. "Advance Retail Sales: Gasoline Stations."
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