On 17 June, the US and Iran signed preliminary agreements on the end of the conflict in the Middle East. In it, Iran agreed to reopen the Hormuz Channel - the shipping line of about 20% of the global oil supply.
For nearly four months, this nearly sealed Channel has caused the world to miss about [1.15 billion barrels of oil] (htpts ://nvexpress.net/the-gioi-thiet-hut-hut-1-15-tung-dau-in-dong-dot-dong-dong-dong-1768.html, according to Kple. In it, the crisis [especially influential] (httts ://nvreexpress.net/Daniel-co-axey-cu-soc-song-lan-hai-chau-a-5072560.html) to Asia, the main consumer market of Middle Eastern oil.
In some Southeast Asian economies, the government had to apply the four-day working week, distributed diesel oil by its rate, re-activated coal power plants, push strong mix of Europa and limit raw oil exports.
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"A refurbishing tanker between Singapore and the Gulf countries can take from one to two months, while many Asian countries are at the lowest level of storage for many years and rising energy prices," he said.
Wood Mackenzie's Sushant Gupta specialist predicts the reserves of oil in Asia continue to decline to about August, before recovering. "For the past three months, storage in many countries has dropped to a minimum. We did not expect to be able to return to the pre-war level this year," he said.
Not to mention some of the energy facilities that are damaged in conflict, like the largest LNG export in the world of Ras Laffan of Qatar, cannot be operated again immediately. Oil refineries cannot immediately restore operations.
The oil flow back also does not mean that the price of energy will drop rapidly. According to Gupta, the Iranian crisis has caused many countries to recognize the importance of energy security. Thus, areas that are under heavy effects such as South Asia and Southeast Asia may increase their strategic oil reserves, even higher than before the war.
As a result, Professor of Economics Pushan Dutt at the European Business Administrative Institute (Centrian), claims that Asian countries will increase the purchase of oil, at the same time China and the United States also need to redistribute the reserves. "So both bows and bridges rise at the same time, slow down the discount rate," he said.
In addition, oil prices may also be slowed down as investors need more information about the process of torpedoing, the clarity of sanctions. In particular, there is still doubt about the long-term stability of the agreement, in the very fragile American-Iranian relations context and the time talks that have been cut down and re-introduced.
Deputy Professor Chen Chien-Ming for example in 14 Iranian points given, demanding compensation of war and the release of the banned property has been the unacceptable Americans. Additionally, Tehran requires Israel to withdraw from Lebanon and end all military activity, which Israel finds hard to agree on.
Mrs. Kim Fustier, the global gas expert of HSBC, identified the agreement as a positive signal, but still needs proof that it is indeed implemented. According to Gupta, the market needs to understand that signing the agreement is only the first step. Expecting the price of oil to drop sharply in short term is unrealistic," he said.
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#[The world lacks 1.15 billion barrels of oil in the Middle East conflict][citation needed][citation needed][citation needed]
[The world has missed about 1.15 billion oil supply barrels over the past 4 months due to Middle Eastern conflict, according to Kpler Analysis.][htt][ht] ://nvexpress.net/the-gioi-hut-hut-1-15-tung-dang-dung-dong-dong-dong-dong-dong-0550768.html]
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[What is the global economy after the American peace deal - Iran?][citation needed]
[University - Iran can help ease the cost of businesses and central banks, in the analysis world.][httt][htt] (2005/vnexpress.net/te-te-toan-can-sau-soon-Austra-Australian-my-iran-5086037.html]
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#[citational oil supply difficult to solve immediately after the American - Iranian agreement][citation needed][citation needed]
[The supply directly increased the price of petroleum and it took months to restore the energy flow as before the war, according to expert.] (httts ://nvreexpress.net/ngu-dau-dau-khihi-to-ga-gay-soon-shutan-my-iran-5086016.html