Last weekend, the US and Israel attacked Iran, with the aim of removing the threat from Tehran's nuclear and missile program to the largest economic security in the world. The conflict extended to the fourth day, spreading to many countries in the Middle East.

The campaign caused the world's price of crude oil by two-thirds to increase from 70 dollars to nearly 80 dollars a barrel, then to lower the heat somewhat. In the meantime, the operation moves through the vein - the Hormuz Channel is almost paralyzed.

America is less affected by energy shocks than other developed countries, thanks to large oil mining production. However, warfare can still affect commerce, prices and investments, undermine the potential for positive growth that is forming this year.

  • President Donald Trump read the Federal Message at the American Congress 24/2. Image: AP*

Recent surveys by Conference Board Organization indicate the trust of CEOs in the American economic prospects and their field increases. Nearly 60%, however, claimed that the risk of geopolitical tension caused the current economic interruption.

In the latest report, the World Bank (WB) assesses the American economic prospects "sharp", but the script is being threatened by the unpredictable conflict at the world's key oil production area. The war will cause many [citation][citation] (htts ://nvvreexpress.net/rui-ro-cur-cu-dot-dot-o-o-vo-vo-vo-te-toan-cau (5045764.htm) with sea transport, supply chains and prices of global goods.

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Last year, the U.S. economy grew 2.2% - 5 years behind. "This early year's data shows that business has begun to overcome recruiting ice and spending. However, military conflicts, the same trade unrest, may raise concerns over the global economic recovery of the United States", Joseph Lupton - economist at JPMorgan said the previous weekend, after the U.S. air raiding Iran.

The impact on the U.S. economy and the monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) also depends on the rise of oil prices, the risk of escalating conflict. "The War with Iran is an unpredictable variable", analysts at SGH Macro Advisors said.

Similarly, lessons from the 2022 Russian - Ukrainian conflict pose a similar risk to the American economy. The Fed's initial response was relaxed, as the authorities reduced the scale of the plan to increase interest rates. But then, their concerns quickly turned to inflation, causing the interest cycle to be accelerated.

Even so, the initial impact of tension in the Middle East this time to the market remained in control. The future interest contract slightly leans toward the possibility of the Fed tightening, but still holds this organ expected to adjust its interest rate twice this year, starting in July.

The U.S. Treasury bond interest term two years ago weekend went down. This is the reaction that is often seen during the turn of events, when investors seek shelter. However, the productivity grew back in the first session of the week, reflecting an increased fear of inflation and risk. The dollar, another shelter property, increased the price compared to the large currency basket the first week. The major U.S. stock indexes are barely moving.

"We don't think that geopolitical developments have a huge impact on Fed interest plans. The risk of inflation is offset by domestic data. The economy forecasts additional 55,000 jobs in February, and unemployment rates around 4.4%. This level allows Fed to believe the labour market is stable", analysts at Citi say.

Meanwhile, at a two-day S&P Global Conference, former Fed Chairman Janet Yellen claimed that the war was at risk of pulling American inflation up high and growth slowed down. This "makes Fed more cautious, reluctant to lower interest rates".

The world is watching the unpredictable development of the war in the Middle East. "Reding the risk significantly increased", Christopher Griff, American chief economicist at Natixis CIB Americas, remarked. He gave many scripts, from early conflict resolved and Iran had a new government, to a prolonged tension which caused the global supply chain to turn upside down.

Norfolk analysis, if Iran's responses are negligible, the impact on oil prices will quickly decline and only cause relatively small economic effects. At the time, the Fed's interest policy was almost unchanged.

On the other hand, if the conflict spreads in the area, affecting the trade routes and the global supply chain outside the energy sector, the price of oil will maintain over $1200,000 a barrel, rising 50% from the present. At this time, the shock will also be out of bounds in the energy sector. The blood flow line is interrupted, insurance costs skyrocketed and the global production network is affected. The U.S. is able to record vocal growth, unemployment increases, large budget deficits and Fed must quickly reduce interest rates to prevent recession.