The U.S. - Iran has just announced an agreement to end over three months of fighting. However, the analysis world assesses the price of petrol and energy supply problems will not be resolved immediately. The cause is that the business takes time to rest in order to ensure that the passage of the Hormuz Channel - the maritime route of about 20% of the global gas supply - has been truly safe. Not to mention, the transport process, the oil filtering, was slow. Thus, it may take months for the energy flow to recover.
"It took time for people to restate, restore insurance operations, bring manpower back to the scene to reactivate infrastructure", Mr Daniel Evans, director of fuel research and refinery at S&P Global Energy, remarked.
Get out! [ The carriers in the Persian Gulf, near the Hormuz Channel, March 11. Photo: Reuter] (httttts ://vcdn1-kmddn.vnecdn.net/2026/06/15/Tau-Oman-JPG-6443-18181818181818197.jpg?w=120&h=0&dr=1&fit=&&c&s=&&ropkskkkkkkkkkkkk222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222
- The cargo ships in the Persian Gulf, near the Hormuz Channel, March 11, Picture: Reuters*
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He also noted that the tanker moved quite slowly. It may take months to transport oil from Hormuz to remote markets, put them into the refinery, and then distribute it to the last consumer.
In addition, some oil manufacturers in the Middle East have had to pause mining due to their capacity for storage. Rebootting took time. Daniel Sternoff, a senior specialist at the Global Energy Policy Center at Columbia University, claimed that the countries that had stopped oil mining would not want to restore production, until it was certain that the situation through the Hormuz Channel had settled and that the ceasefire could last more than 30 or 60 days.
"We still don't know exactly what 'opening' means, as well as the speed of the release of trapped goods will happen," he said.
According to Tamas Varga's estimate, analyst at PVM Oil Associates, restored entirely through Hormuz to several weeks. "Silences slow can lead to supply shortage during 2026," he said.
After the American deal - Iran was released,[permanent price] (htpts ://nvreexpress.net/gia-song-the-gioi-tang-tang-dau-dau-thom-tho-50/5085707.html) more than $4 per barrel in the second session (15). Brent oil and WTI trade around the $28,63 and 80 dollars per barrel. But the price remained significantly higher than before the war, once only about 70 dollars per barrel.
"President investors are merely borrowing the future oil supply so the new oil price is falling", Tamas Varga explained.
Get out! [citation turns Brent oil prices from June 9 to 15/6]. Chart: OilPrice](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAACH5BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACAACAACAATATATATAAAAAAEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
Lost turns Brent oil prices from June 9 to 15/6. Chart: OilPrice
According to Evans, as the prices cool down, the tankers trapped will have to take turns leaving the Hormuz Channel, before new ships can enter to pick up supplies. "To get a new ship, you have to make sure you have a long enough time for the ship to dock safely, load up and leave," he said.
Alan Gelder, the Senior Vice President of Oil Filtering and Oil Market at Wood Mackenzie Advisory, claimed that Saudi and UAE were able to restore the fastest yield, due to the [citational] (htpts ://vnvexpress.net/vng-tig-thit-thiat-thit-e-bien-hor Mitra-5083766.h) and export line replacement of Horríg.
"But places like Iraq are going to have more difficulty having cut down large production, while oil fields are more complex. It may take about a year to get them back to normal," he remarked.
In addition, investments in the energy system have been virtually discontinued since Hormuz's lockdown. This line of capital therefore also takes time to restart, according to Gelder.
The investor is also carefully tracking the flow of ships into the Hormuz Channel, as well as the speed of restoration and exporting of Middle Eastern oil manufacturers, following the damage caused by conflict.
"The losses that have happened cannot be reversed overnight. This includes not only material damage to the oil infrastructure, but also the economic pressures that oil-incorporated states suffer after months of energy costs at high levels", Mrs Priyanka Sachdeva, who specializes in advanced market analysis at Phillip Nova, commented.
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[American Works - Peace Deal draws gold price to $4,300 this morning, while the price of raw oil drops more than 4%.][htts ://nvexpress.net/gia-the-gioi-tang-dau-dau-thom-//650508570.html] [56] (htttts ://nvexpress.net/vang-the-gioi-tang-tang-dau-tho-tho-/50-85707.html#box comment vne)
Get out! [ The carriers in the Persian Gulf, near the Hormuz Channel, March 11. Photo: Reuter] (httttts ://vcdn1-kmddn.vnecdn.net/2026/06/15/Tau-Oman-JPG-6443-18181818181818197.jpg?w=120&h=0&dr=1&fit=&&c&s=&&ropkskkkkkkkkkkkk222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222
Get out! [citation turns Brent oil prices from June 9 to 15/6]. Chart: OilPrice](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAACH5BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACAACAACAATATATATAAAAAAEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA