From 28/2, the U.S. air raids and the retaliatory responses from Iran have begun to spread heat gas into global economic activity. Safety concerns, most tankers and other products have stopped traffic in the Hormuz Channel.
Warren Patterson, head of investment bank sales strategy (PDF), points to 20 million barrels of oil and more than 100 billion m3 of liquid gas (LNG) transported through here every year, taking 20% of the global LNG total.
"The longer the boat is afraid to cross this Channel, the bigger the oil markets," he said.
Get out! [ The Brent oil prices since April 2025 to date. Sources: Reuters](httts
Marie turns the price of Brent oil from April 2025 to now. Source: Reuters
In the morning two-thirds, Brent oil prices increased about $8.5%, up to over 79 dollars per barrel. ING forecasts crude oil may soon be trading around an 80-90, even at $100 when the risk increases. The worst-case scenario is that oil prices can be up to 140 dollars a barrel, in case the oil supply is interrupted significantly and extended.
The price of gas in Europe and LNG in Asia can also be highly modified due to the risk of interruptions from Qatar, in the market context that is already tight. If the supply from Qatar interrupts, the reference price in the Netherlands (TTF) can soar to the 80-100 euro area per MWh (July 28-35 a MMBtu).
With the risk of escalating energy prices, William Jackson, chief of the emerging market expert at Capital Economics, predicting the long-term conflict could cause global inflation to increase to 0.6-0,7%.
In it, Europe would be subject to a greater inflation impact than the US, due to a closer geographical location of the oil fields of the Hormuz Channel, according to Tariq Dennison, the estate management consultant at GFM Asset Management based in Zurich (TMI).
Mr. Frantisek Tabersky, the Forex and Financer of the EMEA region (European, Middle East and Africa) of the ING, Turkish forecasts are most prone to inflation. Because the price of oil increased by 10% would add up the CPI to 1.1 points. Then Romania and Hungary.
Get out! [People sit in front of the shipyard scene off the coast of Fujairah, on the Hormuz Channel in northern UAE on 25/2.] Image: AFP](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAACH5BAAAAAAAABAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACACACAAAAEAAAAEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAATATATATAAEAAAAAAAAEAEAAAAEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
- The people sit in front of the shipyard scene off the coast of Fujairah, in the Strait of Hormuz in northern UAE on 25/2. Image: AFP*
Not only interrupted in the Hormuz Channel, many airlines cancel flights across the Gulf Area that immediately affect travel activities and transportation.
Middle Eastern airports, including Dubai - the world's busiest international transition center - and Doha, have closed to third consecutive day, causing tens of thousands of passengers to be trapped. According to B Riley Securities, the flight interruption (by closing the air and airport) is likely to reduce the need for travel in the area.
Independent airline analyst Brendan Sobie in Singapore stated that Indian airlines were heavily affected by dense flight frequency to the area. Air India cancelled Indian and Zurich, Copenhagen, Norfolk, UAE, Arab Saudi, Israel and Qatar.
According to VariFlight, Chinese airlines have cancelled 26,5% of the ride and reached the Middle East stage 2-8/3. The Pacific Cassiope destroyed it until further notice. Singapore Griffith stopped to Dubai for 7/3. Japan Griffith temporarily discontinued the Tokyo - Doha flight line.
Analysts say fuel cost increases, cancels the flight and flight costs are the main pressures with airlines. The two-thirds of the trade, the heavy-voluntary travel stock. TUI stock - Europe's largest tourist corporation, reduced 7% of its session. International Tribune Group - possession of British Airways, reduced 9%. Lufthansa and Air France-KLM both rot 7%.
Accor Hotel Stocks and Lancaster Corporation went down. Asian airlines such as ANA Holdings, Air China, China Southern Griffith, China Eastern Griffith, AirAsia X, China Griffith and EVA Airways fell at least 4%.
Get out! [The Iraqi, Iran and Kuwait are missing commercial aircraft. Image: Flightradar24](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAACH5BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACAAAAAACAAACAACAAACAACATATATATATATATATAAAAAEAAAAAAAEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
- Iraqi skies, Iran and Kuwait are missing commercial aircraft. Image: Flightradar24*
The airline's even cut off from the material gold market, as this precious metal cannot be transported from Dubai to Switzerland, Hong Kong and India. "It seems most airlines have cancelled flight so there won't be any gold being transported for the next few days", Reuters' source said.
Businessors believe that the impact on the global gold supply will depend on the time of interruption. In front of us, operating at other physical gold trade centers such as China, India, New York, London, and Zurich are fine.
This precious metal price would rise but not too mutant, according to Tariq Dennison at GFM Asset Management. "The gold may increase slightly in the short term, but the price already reflects political unrest at maximum," he remarked.
According to analysis, there are other underlying risks with the global economy from the conflict in Iran. The first is subjective psychology on the market, which suggests that the impact spread from the conflict this time would be limited, similar to "The 12-day War" in June/2025. Then comes the uncertainty of what will happen next in Iran, in terms of the complexity of the system of authority.
That makes oil prices -- capital has increased over the past several weeks -- harder to predict, because it depends on how the countries' response to production and movement through the Middle East is interrupted. This development may even have an impact on the safety of the bonds market, which was previously considered a shelter property.
Rong Ren Goh, the bonds investment manager at Eastspring Investments in Singapore, said that it is unlikely that the purchase of US Treasury bonds at this time would be good transactions, especially if the price of oil skyrocketed and caused inflation.
According to this expert, the risk in the Middle East has increased. "The field will have to re-evaluate from the political geotropical shock to the regimeal risk shock, with the possibility of long conflict rather than just the act of retaliation, unless Iran claims to want to negotiate," he said.
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[The Middle East breakthrough escalated caused many export businesses to break off the supply chain, high-frequency and risk damage to fresh farming.][citation needed][citation needed][citation needed]
[! How's Iran's oil force? ](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlHAQABAACH5BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACATAAEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAEAAEAAAEAAAAAEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAEEEEEEEE 55555757575757557.h.h.h.h.h.h.h.
[How's Iran's petroleum power?]][htpts/vnexpress.net/nang-luc-dau-shia-cu-iran-the-nao [5045557.h]
[It is the 3rd largest oil production water OPEC but Iran's energy industry faces serious disruptions after military raids from the U.S. and Israel.][citation needed][citation needed]
[! [ The gold price, the oil world skyrocketed due to Middle East tensions](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACAAAAAAAAAAAAATATATATAEEAEAAAEAAAEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAEEEEEEEAEEEEEEEEEEEAEEAEAEAEEAEEEAEAEAEAEAAAEAEAEAEAEAEAEAEAEAEAEAEAEAEAEAEAEAEAEAEAEAEAEA EAEAEAEAEAEAEA
#[gold, world oil skyrockets over Middle East tension] (htptshnvvexpress.net/gia-vang-dang-dau-the-gioi-tang-vot-can-tang-jong-dong-dong (504549).
[Every ounce of gold rises over $100, while the price of world oil is further 9% due to the last weekend's performance in the Middle East.][htpts ://nvexpress.net/gia-dang-dau-the-gioi-tang-vot-cantang-China-dong dong/5045449] [24] (htttts ://nvexpress.net/gia-dang-dau-the-gioi-tang-vot-vi-canang-tang-dong-dong-5045449.html#box comment vne)