Simon Boyd, REIDSteel CEO, runs prefab steel firm with 130 staff in Christchurch, exporting to Ghana and Barbados. Mike Hawes represents UK auto industry as Chief Executive of Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).
They stood on opposite sides in Brexit vote June 23, 2016. Ten years later, both equally disappointed.
Decade ago, Brexit backers believed leaving EU would bring bright future, free UK from Brussels bureaucracy, regain control of laws and borders, spark economic boom.
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Reality missed expectations. UK struggles to adapt outside 27-nation free trade bloc and 450-million EU market. Economy stagnates, taxes stay high, public services overload, government fails to stop migrants crossing English Channel in dinghies, AP reports.
Creon Butler, Global Economy and Finance Programme Director at Chatham House think tank, says leaving European single market made UK "poorer". "Whatever promised or expected, leaving cost us significant wealth and prosperity," he said.
Pro-EU protesters in London, June 20. Photo: Reuters
Jonathan Portes, Economics and Public Policy Professor at King’s College London, points out Brexit was economic trade-off: less EU integration for more control over immigration, regulation, trade.
Decade later, studies show trade-off results. US National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) report shows UK GDP 6-8% lower than no-Brexit scenario by most measures. Investment fell 12-13%, labor productivity dropped 3-4%.
Similarly, Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) estimates Brexit cuts long-term productivity by 4%. Other studies show bigger impact. "Brexit made UK economy smaller than if it stayed in EU," Portes concluded.
Goods trade hit hardest, lagging pre-Brexit trends and peer economies. Studies show exports 10-15% lower than stay scenario.
Services fared better. UK strong in high-value, digitally delivered services. But finance, law, other regulated sectors face new barriers from limited market access.
Labor shortages worsened. UK firms used cheap East European labor. Supply dried up post-Brexit as free movement ended.
Hospitality, agriculture, logistics, food processing, manufacturing suffer. Firms adapt by raising prices, cutting output, changing business models.
Curry house owners in Aberdeen (Scotland) and Aberystwyth (Wales) hit hard as East European staff returned home. Ironically, owners backed Brexit on promise of South Asian chef visas. Visas never came.
Post-vote, business costs rose preparing for uncertain future during years of UK-EU talks. Official exit Jan 31, 2020 brought new trade, service rules, making European business costlier, slower.
Cumulative impact hurts most: fewer traders, weaker investment, less competition, reduced European supply chain links, restricted cross-border knowledge and tech flows.
What about autonomy benefits? In theory, UK sets own rules, trade policy, immigration system. In practice, economic gains limited, Portes says.
Brexit backers hailed independent trade deals as top benefit. UK signed dozens of deals with nations from Australia to India and US.
Yet EU takes 41% of UK exports, supplies 50% of imports. "New non-EU trade deals help, but gains tiny compared to costs of leaving EU," Portes says.
UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) avoids tariffs on most goods. But firms face customs, rules of origin, paperwork, loss of mutual recognition.
May 2025, UK and EU agreed "Common Understanding" to cut agri-food checks, ease professional mobility, boost cooperation.
"These measures cannot replace economic value of single market membership," Portes says. Ten years on, UK economy grows, unemployment stays low, many firms adapt.
"But adapting does not mean there are no costs. The key question is not whether the economy is still functioning, but how much better it could have performed without Brexit," he said.
The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), represented by Mike Hawes, was one of the earliest and strongest opponents of Brexit. They warned that increased paperwork for shipping parts and finished vehicles would damage an industry built on an interconnected network of factories spanning the EU.
So far, this concern has become reality, reducing investment in the UK automotive industry. "We are still adapting to the times, but Brexit has certainly brought additional costs and pressure to the industry," he said.
Meanwhile, REIDSteel CEO Simon Boyd is disappointed but has no regrets. He still defends his decision to support leaving the EU and believes the poor impact is due to officials' lack of determination to implement Brexit as promised. In addition, the UK has had to endure many unexpected shocks over the past 10 years, from Covid to the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
"Brexit has not delivered everything that was advertised. But it still yields results, just very slowly," he said.
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