On February 28, the US and Israel raided Iran, causing the Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to die. Iran has quickly launched a response campaign aimed at Israeli territory, as well as a series of American bases in Middle Eastern countries.
According to the analysis, this development could disrupt the oil production at the Gulf Country, as well as damage to the general Middle East energy infrastructure.
Secting the third largest crude oil OPEC
Iran is one of the largest oil reserves in the world. The U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) data indicates that by the end of 2023, the country contributed 24% of the Middle East and 12% of the global oil reserves. Nevertheless, the production activity here was restricted due to years of international sanctions and was not properly invested.
Get out! The energy infrastructure and major mining points in Iran. Plot: LSEG, Reuters))))))))
- Energy infrastructure and major mining points in Iran. Graph: LSEG, Reuters*
Currently, the Gulf Country is the third largest oil production water in the Oil Export Nations Foundation (OPEC), contributing 4.5% of the global supply.
Each day this country produces 3.3 million barrels of crude oil, and about 1.3 million barrels of condensate gas as well as other liquid fuels. Iran's refineries have a total capacity of 2.6 million barrels per day, according to FGE Advisory.
Iran's oil mining spots are concentrated in the southwestern provinces, such as Khuzestan (silent oil), Bushehr (burning gas) and South Pars (invertation gas).
Get out! [Abadan oil refinery in southwest Iran in 2019. Image: Reuters](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAACH5BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACACACATATATATAAAAAAAAAAAEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAATATATAEEEAAAAAEAAAAAAAAAAAAAEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
- The Abaran oil refinery in southwest Iran in 2019. Image: Reuters*
The analysis world says that if Iran's oil production declined, Saudi Arabia and other members in the OPEC can compensate with backup capacity. However, the team’s capacity has been limited, as OPEC has gradually increased its yield for nearly a year. Day-to-day, the University of Oil Exports and Associates (OPEC+) unanimously increased production of 206,000 barrels per day in April.
Prior to that, due to the heavy impact of sanctions, Iran was exempted from following the quota when OPEC+ squeezed output.
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♪ Oh, my God ♪
Although Iran's economy is relatively diverse compared to other countries in the Middle East, oil is still considered to be the blood of this economy, making a major contribution to the budget and provision of the Forex. EIA's report indicates that in 2023 Iranian oil companies collected 53 billion dollars for fuel exports.
In the June 2025 report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that the country exports about 1.7 million barrels of crude oil and gas condensed daily. They are also large export water with oil products, with nearly 80,000 barrels of fuel per day, according to Kpler Data Company, slightly increasing compared to the year 2024
Get out! [ The destinations of Iranian crude oil exports, units: 1000 barrels per day. Graph: Kpler, Reuters](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAACH5BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACAACATATATATAEAEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAEAAAAAAAAAAAAEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAEAEAAEAAAAAAAAAAA
- The destinations of Iranian crude oil exports. Unit: Thousands of barrels per day. Plot: Kpler, Reuters*
Over the years, China's private refineries have always been main buyers of Iranian oil. Stage 2020-2023, Tehran increases production of 1 million barrels a day, due to demand from Beijing to higher.
The U.S. Ministry of Finance then punishes with several Chinese private oil refineries for the operation. Beijing claims not to recognize the unilateral sanctions to China's business partner. Even so, the amount of crude Iranian oil they bought in was declining.
This year, China's import of crude oil and gas condensed Iran reached an average of 1.2 million barrels a day, reducing 14% over last year, according to Kpler's data.
To protect oil production before the possibility of being raided by the U.S., Iran's past time built a massive oil depot, which appeared up to 200 million barrels. The figure is equivalent to the global consumption of fuel in 2 days, according to Kpler's data on 27/2.
Iran's years of passing of sanctions by different measures. It contains the transfer of oil from one vessel to another on the sea, changing its origin or hiding its location from the satellite.
♪ Gas storage ♪
Iran produces natural gas from South Pars gas mines off the coast. South Pars/North Dome is the largest gas mine in the world. The North Dome section is now exploited by Qatar.
However, technical sanctions and restrictions caused the majority of gas mining from South Pars to be used only in the country. According to Gas Exeter Countries Forum, the total gas production of Iran in 2024 reached 276 billion m3. In it, 94% were consumed in water. The rest exported to neighboring countries such as Turkey and Iraq.
Get out! [The Sea of Hormum and surrounding nations] Graph: NASA](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAACH5BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACACACAATATATAAAEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAEAAAAAAAAAAAAATATATATAAEAAEAAAAAEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
- Mind the Hormuz Channel and surrounding nations. Graphics:
June 2025 Israel's attacks hit four facilities at the South Pars Mine. Many of these facilities are in conjunction with American energy corporations such as ExxonMobil and Conoco Publish.
The last weekend's raid was also expected to cause the most serious disruption on the gas market since after Russia launched military operations in Ukraine February 2022.
In addition to Iran's export interruption, the neighbouring country of Qatar - one of the most important gas providers in the world - will also have difficulty transporting cargo across the Hormuz Channel.
"Any naval activity at the Hormuz Channel, or the development associated with Qatar's LNG production would cause gas prices to rise", Tom Mazec-Manser - Director of LNG and European gas at Wood Mackenzie said on *Blomberg.
The crude oil market this morning responded due to fear of conflict in Iran continuing. Brent crude oil at one point rose 9% to 79,4 dollars a barrel. American crude oil WTI increased $8.6% to 72,66. Previously, in the OTC session, Brent oil increased 10% to 80 dollars a barrel.
Capital Economics predicts the prolonged state of the state that can affect the oil supply, causing prices up to approximately $100 a barrel. At the time, global inflation is likely to increase by 0.6-0,7 points.
Thomas Thu - English Shu * (in line with Reuters, EIA, IEAAH
[! [The Iranian oil gun skyrockets before the attack](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQAAAAACH5BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAATATATATATATATAAEAEAEAEAEAAEAAAAAAAAAEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAEEEAEEAAEEEEAAAAAEEEAEAAEEEAEAEEAAEEAEAAEAEAEAAAAAEAAEAAAEAAAAAAAEEAEAEAEAA
[This is the amount of Iranian crude oil that has been loaded on the highest ships since 2018, as political risk increases.][citation needed]
[! [ The gold price, the oil world skyrocketed due to Middle East tensions](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACAAAAAAAAAAAAATATATATAEEAEAAAEAAAEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAEEEEEEEAEEEEEEEEEEEAEEAEAEAEEAEEEAEAEAEAEAAAEAEAEAEAEAEAEAEAEAEAEAEAEAEAEAEAEAEAEAEAEAEAEA EAEAEAEAEAEAEA
#[gold, world oil skyrockets over Middle East tension] (htptshnvvexpress.net/gia-vang-dang-dau-the-gioi-tang-vot-can-tang-jong-dong-dong (504549).
[Every ounce of gold rises over $100, while the price of world oil is further 9% due to the last weekend's performance in the Middle East.][htpts ://nvexpress.net/gia-dang-dau-the-gioi-tang-vot-cantang-China-dong dong/5045449] [24] (htttts ://nvexpress.net/gia-dang-dau-the-gioi-tang-vot-vi-canang-tang-dong-dong-5045449.html#box comment vne)
[! [ The risk of oil crisis as the Hormuz Channel closes](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQAAAACH5BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACTATATATAEAEAEAEAEAEAEAEAEAEAEAEAEAEAEAAEAEAEAEAEAAAAAAEAEAAEAEAAEAEAAEAEAEAEAEEEEEEAEAEAEEAEEEEEEAEEEEEEAEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE