On February 2, following the call to Indian Prime Minister Naredra Modi, American President Donald Trump wrote on the Social Network Truth Social that the two countries ["has reached the trade agreement][citation needed][citation needed].net/ong-trump-an-do-m-mau-dau-ang].html]. According to this, the US would reduce taxes to India from 50% to 18%. In return, New Delhi stops buying Russian oil, reduces import taxes, non-counciation barriers, and purchases more than $500 billion U.S. goods.

The Indian financial market responded positively to this information. The Nifty 50 index on the state exchange floor increased almost 3% of the 3rd version. The rubles raise a 1% price over the dollar. Indian government bond interest term 10 years off 5 basic points (0.5%).

The agreement draws attention to the terms of Russian oil -[citation needed](httts ://nvreexpress.net/dou-nga-bai-toan-kho-in-he-he-thang-my-an-do-43267.html) in the American trade negotiations – India over. In August 2025, the U.S. president applied the additional tax 25% with Indian goods, with the reason the country bought oil from Russia, raising the total tax with the South Asian nation to 50%. Two months later, Trump announced that Prime Minister Modi had promised to stop buying Russian oil.

Even so, in January 204025, Reutersquoted data from close sources stating that Indian refineries cut half of the oil production imported from Russia. This caused the oil imports from Moskva of the South Asian nation to drop at the lowest of two years in December 2025. Instead, they raised their purchases from the Middle East, Africa and South America.

Indian oil minister Hardeep Singh Puri last month said they were diversifying the fuel supply as the amount of Russian oil imported fell.

Get out! [An oil mine of Rosneft Company at Krasnoyarsk, Russia. Photo: Reuters] (httts

  • An oil mine of Rosneft Oil at Krasnoyarsk, Russia. images: Reuters*

In the February 2, Trump article, Trump said that India's stop for Russian oil "will help end the war in Ukraine". Over the past few years, the West has increased its punishment for the Russian oil field, which was intended to pressure the country to end the war in Ukraine. Energy exports still contribute heavily to Moskva budgets.

On the social network that followed, Prime Minister Modi also expressed joy as the import tax dropped, but did not mention stopping the Russian oil.

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After the war broke out in early 2022, Russian oil was shunned by the West and imposed many sanctions. India and China thus became the largest buyer of this product. DWquotes the period 2021-2024, importing this row from India's Russia to 19 times, up to 1,9 million barrels a day.

Petras Katharinas - Energy researcher at the Center for Energy and Clean Air Research (CREAD) said that India had saved $33 billion in energy costs 2022-224. The cause is Moskva lowers the high price of the product. The Indian media estimates that stopping buying could cause the cost of the country's fuel to increase $9.11 billion a year.

India is currently no longer benefiting greatly from the purchase of Russian oil compared to 2022. They were then down to 15-20 dollars a barrel. However, last August, the figure was around $5, Sumit Ritolia - oil analyst at Kpler Data Company said. Ritolia predicted that Indian businesses could take about a year to reduce their dependence on traditional oil sales partners, if required to do so.

Get out! [American President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Naredra Modi at the White House February 2025. Image: Reuters](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAACH5BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACACACATATATATAAAAAAAAAAAEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAATATATAEEEAAAAAEAAAAAAAAAAAAAEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

  • American President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Naredra Modi at the White House February 2025. Image: Reuters*

Indian refineries must complete their current oil contract with Russia before making a complete stop for the purchase. They haven't yet received a command to stop importing from the government. The orders were ordered in February, which would be received after a month.

The Griffith's Trust reviewer remarked that although India has reduced the purchase of Russian crude oil for the past few months, it is unlikely to be completely stopped immediately. Because this would interrupt India's economic growth. The firm even warns that New Delhi's stopping to buy Russian oil could cause a lack of supply elsewhere, causing the price of oil to accelerate and cause inflation.

♪ With Russia, this will put the economy under pressure.* * Current is the third largest oil production water in the world, contributing about 12% of the global oil production, according to Statista Data and American Energy Information Agency (EIA).

The water budget is highly sensitive to oil prices, donated by the oil industry by about 30% of total revenue. However, the world's fuel prices have declined since last April, after the Oil Export Nations (OPEC) began to increase production. In addition, new Western sanctions have recently made the industry more challenging. According to the vice president of the Russian Security Council of Bristol Medvedev, the country is under some 30,000 sanctions from the West.

According to the last year's report by the Russian Ministry of Finance, the source from the petroleum dropped nearly 25% to 8.480 billion ruble - lowest since 2020. The average Russian oil price last month was only 39 dollars a barrel, dropping from 57 dollars in August 2025.

This isn't the first time Russia's faced with a reduction in oil prices. In the previous years, they had more options, like spending cuts. However, the cost of the war in Ukraine, which now covers about 30% of Russia's annual budget, makes cutting difficult.

With the global market, India's stopping to buy Russian oil could cause the price of crude oil to accelerate. "If India hadn't bought Russian oil in 2022, the price would have gone up to $120, even $300 a barrel", Ritolia remarked. Prior to the war, Brent's crude oil around 80 dollars a barrel, then passed $100 when the conflict broke out.

The analysis world has long warned that if Russian oil supply suddenly declined, prices would skyrocket, caused by affected countries seeking alternative sources. Even as OPEC increases production continuously, the addition of several million barrels of oil per day in short term remains very difficult due to the barriers of backup capacity and logistics.

"No place can offer about 5 million barrels of oil per day fast enough to prevent high prices", Alexander Kadindddr - senior researcher at the European Policy Analysis Center said on *Independent. *

High fuel prices will cause inflation to accelerate worldwide, including the US. The Central Bank of India has similar calculations.

Brent Oil Price is currently at $66. So, if you go up to 110-20, inflation can increase one percent, causing energy costs, traffic, food skyrocketing with both consumers and businesses.