What To Expect From Friday's Jobs Report

Key Takeaways

  • Forecasters expect the U.S. economy added fewer jobs in May than in April.
  • Despite the deceleration, the third month in a row of job gains would be a sign the job market is stabilizing after a very shaky start.
  • Because of the crackdown on immigration and the aging workforce, it will take fewer job creations than in the past to keep unemployment from rising.

The job market may be stabilizing after a shaky start to the year.

A report Friday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to show U.S. employers added 80,000 jobs in May, down from a gain of 115,000 in April, according to a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.1 The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.3%, a relatively low level by historical standards.

Should the report match expectations, it would mark the third month in a row the economy has added jobs, the first such stretch since early 2025. The stabilizing trend would be a turnaround after late 2025 and the outset of the year, when the economy lost jobs in multiple months as economic uncertainty discouraged hiring.2

What This Means For The Economy

Stable job growth is a good sign for the health of the overall economy, and takes pressure off of the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to prevent a surge of unemployment.

Forecasters expect most of the job gains to be in education and healthcare, continuing the trend from recent reports. Some economists said they expect job growth to continue as the year goes on.

Another wrinkle is that because of reduced immigration and the aging workforce, it will take fewer jobs added to the economy each month than in the past to keep the unemployment rate from rising. Economists at Deutsche Bank, for instance, put the "break-even" rate at 20,000 jobs.

Related Education

[Understanding Nonfarm Payroll and Its Economic Impact

Nonfarm Payroll: A measure of the number of people employed in the U.S., excluding farming, private household, nonprofit, and active military employees and proprietors.](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/nonfarmpayroll.asp) [What Is the Unemployment Rate?

Unemployment Rate](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/u/unemploymentrate.asp)

Although the economy struggled to meet that benchmark late last year, there are signs things have turned around, economists at the bank led by Chief Economist Matthew Luzzetti, wrote in a commentary.

"Downside risks are still present from the continuation of the fragile low-hiring, low-firing equilibrium," they wrote. "But upside risks have also emerged, as payroll gains have picked up against a backdrop of constrained labor supply. Indeed, some sectors like construction that are most impacted by the immigration crackdown are showing signs of labor market tightening and wage acceleration."

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  1. Marketwatch. U.S. Economic Calendar.
  2. Bureau of Labor Statistics via Federal Reserve Economic Data. All Employees, Total Nonfarm.

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